Legislature(2003 - 2004)

02/25/2003 03:22 PM House O&G

Audio Topic
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
HB 57-ROYALTY GAS CONTRACTS                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR KOHRING  announced that the  final order of  business would                                                               
be HOUSE BILL NO. 57, "An  Act amending the manner of determining                                                               
the  royalty  received by  the  state  on  gas production  as  it                                                               
relates to the manufacture of certain value-added products."                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Number 2003                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG moved  to adopt  the proposed  committee                                                               
substitute (CS),  Version 23-LS0303\I,  Chenoweth, 2/25/03,  as a                                                               
work draft.   There being no objection, Version I  was before the                                                               
committee.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Number 1987                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE CHENAULT, sponsor of  HB 57, reminded members that                                                               
questions had arisen  at the previous hearing;  those relating to                                                               
the  fiscal  note  prepared  by   the  Division  of  Oil  &  Gas,                                                               
Department  of Natural  Resources  (DNR),  required answers  from                                                               
Mark  Myers, who  was on  teleconference.   [The original  fiscal                                                               
note was  dated 2/4/03; a new  fiscal note with a  more extensive                                                               
analysis, dated  2/11/03, had been  provided by the  division for                                                               
the original  bill version, but  copies weren't yet  available to                                                               
members.]   Also available to  answer questions was  Mike Nugent,                                                               
the general  manager of Agrium  Kenai Nitrogen  Operations, which                                                               
would be [assisted] by this legislation.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Number 1860                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE   CHENAULT,  in   response  to   a  request   from                                                               
Representative   Rokeberg,  addressed   changes  in   Version  I.                                                               
Page 1,   line  10,   further  defines   "manufacturer"  to   say                                                           
"manufacturer of  agricultural chemicals".  The  word "increased"                                                           
on page 2, line  26 [of the original bill, line  27 of Version I]                                                               
is deleted.   Page  2, line  28, of the  original bill,  which is                                                               
line 29 of  Version I, adds [after "manufacturer",  the words "of                                                       
agricultural chemicals"]; page  3, line 3 [of  the original bill,                                                           
which is line 5 of Version I],  does the same.  And [page 3, line                                                               
8 of Version I]  defines "manufacturer of agricultural chemicals"                                                               
[whereas  the  original  bill,   beginning  at  line  6,  defined                                                               
"manufacturer"].                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Number 1790                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE   ROKEBERG   requested  corroboration   that   the                                                               
concerns  expressed by  him and  Representative  Kerttula at  the                                                               
previous meeting  were addressed  by the more  restrictive change                                                               
from "manufacturer" to "manufacturer of agricultural chemicals".                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Number 1682                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MARK  MYERS,  Director, Division  of  Oil  & Gas,  Department  of                                                               
Natural Resources  (DNR), offered his belief  that the definition                                                               
has  been  significantly  narrowed to  address  the  agricultural                                                               
chemical  issue.     He  said  the  concern   about  the  broader                                                               
definition of  ["manufacturer"] no  longer remains.   For further                                                               
clarification, he  deferred to Virginia  Ragle of  the Department                                                               
of Law, who he said had looked at this extensively as well.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Number 1639                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
VIRGINIA  RAGLE, Assistant  Attorney General;  Oil, Gas  & Mining                                                               
Section; Civil  Division (Juneau); Department of  Law, noted that                                                               
she reviews issues  on behalf of DNR.  She  told members, "We did                                                               
look over the definitions proposed  by Agrium to narrow this, and                                                               
they  feel that  this ...  would be  one way  to narrow  down the                                                               
range  of applicants  ... DNR  would  be getting  to seek  relief                                                               
under this  bill."  [She  was given a copy  of Version I  at this                                                               
point.]                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG  referred to page  3, line 10,  and asked                                                               
whether   the  definition   of   "manufacturer  of   agricultural                                                               
chemicals",  which   mentions  "similar  chemicals",   is  narrow                                                               
enough.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MS.  RAGLE replied  that it  differs somewhat  from the  language                                                               
proposed [by Agrium] for the  definition, which she'd reviewed on                                                               
behalf of DNR a  couple of weeks ago.  She  said it didn't appear                                                               
to  differ in  a "significant  legal way,"  but pointed  out that                                                               
she'd just looked at [Version I] briefly.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Number 1373                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG   asked,  "As   an  attorney,   are  you                                                               
comfortable  defending the  language or  pursuing somebody  who's                                                               
trying to breach it?"                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MS.  RAGLE offered  the possibility  that it  was written  by the                                                               
legislative   drafters  to   conform  to   (indisc.--papers  over                                                               
microphone) requirements.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR KOHRING  suggested that  because Version  I has  a narrower                                                               
definition, there should be a change in the fiscal note.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
The committee took an at-ease from 4:50 p.m. to 4:54 p.m.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Number 1298                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  KOHRING,  indicating  copies  of  the  division's  2/11/03                                                               
fiscal note were being made, asked Mr. Myers to comment on it.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MR.  MYERS acknowledged  its complexity  and  apologized for  not                                                               
being present  to explain [the  previous version] at  the earlier                                                               
hearing.   He  then told  members it  basically is  about a  $33-                                                               
million  fiscal  note  over  about  a  seven-year  period.    The                                                               
contract price  - the contract value  - is based on  a negotiated                                                               
contract  between  Agrium  and   Unocal  [Union  Oil  Company  of                                                               
California]; Unocal actually owns the  gas, and so basically [the                                                               
state's] royalty  commitment is through  Unocal.  Mr.  Myers said                                                               
there is  a contract  value for  the gas, a  known volume  of gas                                                               
being  produced  from  the  leases under  that  contract,  and  a                                                               
differential  between the  actual market  value -  the prevailing                                                               
value - of that gas and the contract value under the contract.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Number 1209                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR.  MYERS  advised members  that  the  negotiated contract  with                                                               
Unocal  has  provisions that  complicate  part  of the  analysis.                                                               
[Agrium]  essentially  negotiated  a   lower  contract  price  or                                                               
contract  value at  the  time  of sale  of  the plant,  basically                                                               
buying both the gas supply and the  plant for a single price.  He                                                               
offered  his understanding  that, as  part of  the contract,  any                                                               
lowering of  royalty below market  value is shared  50-50 between                                                               
Unocal and Agrium.  Expressing  confidence that the fiscal effect                                                               
to the  state of $33 million  is fairly accurate, he  pointed out                                                               
that approximately  50 percent - not  the entire amount -  of the                                                               
benefit would go to Agrium.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. MYERS  explained that the  [fiscal note]  analysis recognizes                                                               
that the  amount of  gas under that  contract is  decreasing over                                                               
time.   And there are  other scenarios wherein additional  gas is                                                               
bought off  other state lease  sales.  Therefore, the  final page                                                               
of the fiscal note addresses  sensitivity analyses.  For example,                                                               
if  the plant  is  only  producing gas  at  about  75 percent  of                                                               
capacity  and  the  amount  of  gas  under  the  Unocal  contract                                                               
declines rapidly, [Agrium] will pick  up more gas off other state                                                               
leases and  the differential could  be a little less,  around $23                                                               
million.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Number 1098                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR.  MYERS, mentioning  that  the  division had  run  a bunch  of                                                               
scenarios, pointed  out that  the fiscal  note strictly  looks at                                                               
Agrium and doesn't  refer to any other people  taking the benefit                                                               
of what  he called the  "double-A"  treatment [because  this bill                                                               
amends subsection (aa) of AS 38.05.180].  He explained:                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     We put,  in the earlier  pages, a back-casting  of what                                                                    
     it  would  have  cost  in previous  years;  that's  not                                                                    
     actual costs of the bill, but  it just shows you a good                                                                    
     illustration  ...  that  the   numbers  are,  in  fact,                                                                    
     reasonable.   We went through the  fiscal analysis with                                                                    
     Agrium as well,  and, ... my understanding  is, we have                                                                    
     a pretty  good concurrence  ... on  the numbers  in the                                                                    
     fiscal  note with  Lisa  Parker ...  and  the folks  at                                                                    
     Agrium.  So,  again, we believe this is  a good, actual                                                                    
     calculation, ... with the  sensitivity analysis in here                                                                    
     for various scenarios.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. MYERS pointed  out that also complicating the  fiscal note is                                                               
that the contract  price is arm's length - the  state isn't privy                                                               
to that data.   That is one of the  issues that makes calculating                                                               
additional  fiscal  effects  on   other  leases  more  difficult,                                                               
because the state  isn't a party to the contract  between the two                                                               
parties.   Other considerations often  come into that,  he added,                                                               
"which is one of  the reasons you always keep a  market value - a                                                               
prevailing  value -  option in  your  lease form."   He  informed                                                               
members  that Ms.  Ragle  is very  knowledgeable  about both  the                                                               
contract between the  companies and some of the  history with the                                                               
"double A" [subsection (aa)] and why it was done.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Number 0972                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE CRAWFORD  said he  understands the worth  and need                                                               
of doing this  for Agrium, but asked whether the  bill would open                                                               
up  the  possibility  of  big  breaks with  regard  to  taxes  or                                                               
royalties down the road.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR. MYERS replied  that he believed it would, but  only for other                                                               
manufacturers of agricultural chemicals.   If there were a lot of                                                               
North Slope gas  available, for example, and  someone else wanted                                                               
to  do a  large-scale  agricultural project,  it would  certainly                                                               
qualify  for  it.    It  would  be  for  similar-type  industrial                                                               
activity,  limited,   to  his  belief,  by   that  definition  of                                                               
["manufacturer of agricultural chemicals"].   He also offered his                                                               
belief that another  company doing a similar  type of value-added                                                               
business  would suffer  the same  competitive issues  that Agrium                                                               
would, and thus it would be  reasonable that such a company would                                                               
receive similar  treatment.  He  suggested that if the  desire is                                                               
to limit potential revenue implications,  there could be a sunset                                                               
placed on  the bill;  he indicated  he wasn't  recommending that,                                                               
but just thinking of possibilities.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE CRAWFORD  thanked Mr. Myers  and said it  was what                                                               
he'd wanted to hear.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Number 0832                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG  asked Mr.  Myers whether he'd  looked at                                                               
any model  of economic  alternatives weighing  foregone royalties                                                               
that would be lost to the state  if the company were to shut down                                                               
because of an inability to have affordable feedstock.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MR. MYERS clarified that the  division isn't taking a position on                                                               
the bill  on its merits.   He added, "We understand  the jobs and                                                               
the  importance of  the  Agrium plant,  and that  it  is a  truly                                                               
value-added industry."   He  said the fiscal  note just  looks at                                                               
the factual production  base over the next seven  years.  Calling                                                               
the "what ifs" a two-edged sword,  Mr. Myers pointed out that the                                                               
royalty gas  is less  than 7  percent of the  gas going  into the                                                               
plant  now.   Only about  half [Agrium's]  gas currently  is from                                                               
state royalty  leases; the other  half is from federal  and other                                                               
lessees.  He remarked:                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
     So, ...  we only  affect about 7  percent, and  if half                                                                    
     the  value's going  to  another  producer, you're  only                                                                    
     affecting, effectively, about 3.5  percent of their gas                                                                    
     or less in giving them a  lower break.  Now, that could                                                                    
     well  help  them stay  in  business,  but there  is  no                                                                    
     economic test  in the  bill, one way  or the  other, to                                                                    
     say whether  this is really  helping them or not.   And                                                                    
     I'm  not advocating  that ...  it  wouldn't help  them.                                                                    
     I'm  just saying,  you can't  really quantify,  on that                                                                    
     small quantity of  gas, how it's going  to affect their                                                                    
     long-term marketability in the [Cook] Inlet.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
     I think  you can say,  in converse, though:   without a                                                                    
     reasonable  price   for  gas,  you  don't   get  future                                                                    
     exploration  ... and  development.   So  ... there's  a                                                                    
     needed  certain  level  of  pricing  in  the  inlet  to                                                                    
     establish  that additional  supply,  to  keep ...  them                                                                    
     healthy.  And I think  always, as ... the person paying                                                                    
     the lowest  value for gas,  they're always going  to be                                                                    
     the lower end of the  supply chain.  But that lower-end                                                                    
     price has  to be  enough to encourage  that exploration                                                                    
     [and] development.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Number 0621                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. MYERS suggested the market value and cost structure should                                                                  
[equilibrate] eventually.  He added:                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
     I don't know,  again, if there's a whole lot  we can do                                                                    
     about  it,  since the  gas  we  supply in  the  royalty                                                                    
     share's a relatively small ...  portion of the gas.  So                                                                    
     you  ask  a  really complicated  question  and,  again,                                                                    
     there is no position [on  the bill].  We understand the                                                                    
     value that  Agrium brings, and I'm  not suggesting that                                                                    
     this  bill is  appropriate or  not appropriate.   We're                                                                    
     just  actually physically  analyzing the  percentage of                                                                    
     the royalty  gas -  what the  fiscal effect's  going to                                                                    
     be.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Number 0575                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG referred  to one  of the  tables in  the                                                               
fiscal  note analysis,  specifying  that he  was  looking at  the                                                               
royalties paid  versus royalty  foregone; using  Agrium's figures                                                               
based on  the McDowell Group  document [signed by Jim  Calvin and                                                               
included in packets],  he said the company would  be paying $41.5                                                               
million and  that foregone  royalty would be  $24 million  or so.                                                               
He asked, if Agrium shut down,  whether the product would be lost                                                               
or would find its way into other markets.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
MR. MYERS  surmised that the sale  of the gas might  be deferred,                                                               
but that  ultimately the  gas would  go into  the LNG  or utility                                                               
market, in which case it would  get a higher price.  He mentioned                                                               
the question of the loss of the industry and the jobs.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Number 0467                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR KOHRING  said that's assuming  there would be  other takers                                                               
for the gas,  which isn't certain.  He offered  that if the plant                                                               
shuts down, ultimately  there will be less  in royalty [payments]                                                               
to  the state  because  there will  be  less need  for  gas.   He                                                               
specified that  he supports the  legislation, and  emphasized the                                                               
need  to weigh  the  economic  benefits as  well  as the  royalty                                                               
consequences to  the state.   He said this  is an effort  to keep                                                               
[Agrium] from closing.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Number 0362                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG asked  Mr. Myers  what kind  of rate  is                                                               
being used for discounting the  value and the present value basis                                                               
on the fiscal note.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MR. MYERS answered, "We're using 8 percent."                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Number 0331                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  CRAWFORD  requested  to  hear  verification  from                                                               
Agrium that  50 percent [of the  benefit] would go to  Agrium and                                                               
50 percent would be to Unocal.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Number 0270                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MIKE NUGENT,  General Manager, Agrium Kenai  Nitrogen Operations,                                                               
responded,  "Under  the arrangement  we  have  made with  Unocal,                                                               
right  now we  would share  in  any additional  royalties to  the                                                               
State of Alaska.  However, they  are not our sole supplier of gas                                                               
right now."                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE CRAWFORD  said, "According  to your  figures, over                                                               
the next  seven years there'd be  about $24 or $25  million worth                                                               
of total  benefit.   Half of  that would go  towards Unocal.   Is                                                               
that approximately right?"                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT offered his understanding  that all the figures assume                                                               
that Agrium  is running at full  [capacity] and that all  the gas                                                               
is coming from Unocal.  If  that were the case, the figures would                                                               
be  correct,  but that  isn't  the  situation  today or  what  is                                                               
foreseen for the future.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE CRAWFORD  responded that  the figures  provided by                                                               
Agrium  said $24  million,  whereas  the Division  of  Oil &  Gas                                                               
estimated approximately $33 million,  based on uncertain figures.                                                               
He said he wants to ensure  that Agrium exists for generations to                                                               
come.  He  asked whether a way  needs to be found  to direct that                                                               
total $24 million  to Agrium, instead of half to  Agrium and half                                                               
to Unocal.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT replied that splitting  it with Unocal is an agreement                                                               
his company made with Unocal on the gas it supplies.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Number 0030                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE McGUIRE  asked what  percentage of its  gas Agrium                                                               
receives now from Unocal.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
TAPE 03-10, SIDE A                                                                                                            
Number 0001                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR.  NUGENT  said the  company  is  operating  at 75  percent  of                                                               
capacity,  and  approximately  two-thirds  of that  gas  is  from                                                               
Unocal.  For  the other one-third of the 75  percent, the company                                                               
has  made  arrangements  with other  suppliers  over  the  winter                                                               
months to supply that gas.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Number 0063                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  McGUIRE   offered  her  understanding   that  the                                                               
contracts  with Unocal  specify  that any  royalty adjustments  -                                                               
either  up or  down -  are shared  or apportioned  equally.   She                                                               
asked whether  the term  is for  a set  amount of  gas for  a set                                                               
period or  is adjustable.   She said  it has been  suggested that                                                               
Agrium might benefit  more if there were other  suppliers in Cook                                                               
Inlet so that  the supply would be spread out.   She acknowledged                                                               
that she might be requesting proprietary information.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT answered:                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
     We had a  contract with Unocal to be  our sole supplier                                                                    
     of gas  through 2009.   And Unocal  has been  unable to                                                                    
     deliver that full quantity of  gas.  So, to answer your                                                                    
     question, we are  in the process, over  the short term,                                                                    
     to  try  to  develop  additional  supplies  from  other                                                                    
     producers, and  it's out intention, ...  going forward,                                                                    
     to  develop enough  relationships with  other producers                                                                    
     to get our facility back to capacity.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Number 0197                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG  asked whether the contract  provides for                                                               
a further  [price] break because  of Unocal's failure  to deliver                                                               
[the necessary amount  of] Agrium's feedstock and  because of the                                                               
necessity to seek other sources of supply.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT replied  that the contract is a  subject of litigation                                                               
at this  point.  There are  provisions in the contract  such that                                                               
if Unocal cannot  supply the full amounts, it is  liable for some                                                               
liquidated  damages, but  Mr. Nugent  said those  are "relatively                                                               
minor in the shortfall that we're presently experiencing."                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Number 0287                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG referred  to Mr.  Myers' testimony  that                                                               
the  amount  of royalty  gas  is  a  relatively small  amount  of                                                               
Agrium's  needed gas.   He  requested clarification,  noting that                                                               
Mr. Nugent had  said Unocal is supplying about  two-thirds of the                                                               
current feedstock but that Mr.  Myers had mentioned [3.5] percent                                                               
for the royalty gas.  He asked whether he'd misunderstood.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR.  NUGENT answered,  "This gets  fairly complicated  because it                                                               
depends on  where the gas  comes as to what  percentage ownership                                                               
the state may or may not have in a particular property."                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG  asked  whether the  [3.5]  percent  Mr.                                                               
Myers  had mentioned  was in-kind  royalty.   He referred  to the                                                               
charts in the fiscal note that  talk about the amount of foregone                                                               
royalty because  of the  bill.  Referring  to the  McDowell Group                                                               
document in  packets, he observed  that it says part  of Agrium's                                                               
feedstock comes from federal leases,  "of which the state gets 90                                                               
percent."    He  asked  whether those  types  of  revenue-sharing                                                               
provisions come into  play under this bill or  would be insulated                                                               
from the legislation.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MR.  NUGENT  replied  that  this  bill  is  designed  to  address                                                               
[leases]  in which  the state  has an  ownership position  in the                                                               
gas.                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG  referred to the McDowell  Group document                                                               
and  noted  that  it  refers  to  approximately  25  million  Mcf                                                               
[thousand cubic feet]  and a royalty share of  $3.4 million, with                                                               
$3 million in royalty foregone.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT noted that in the  table, the state leases assume that                                                               
Agrium is operating at capacity,  which isn't the case; that half                                                               
the gas  it receives comes  from state  leases; and that  of that                                                               
portion, one-eighth or  12.5 percent would be  state royalty gas.                                                               
He remarked  that because  the company isn't  able to  operate at                                                               
capacity, there  is an impact  on the royalty  paid.  There  is a                                                               
real revenue loss taking place right now, he added.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Number 0593                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG said  he was  trying to  figure out  the                                                               
other sources and  where this particular royalty  would come into                                                               
play,  since  the  bill  affects   only  a  portion  of  Agrium's                                                               
feedstock.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT reiterated that the bill  would have an impact on only                                                               
those leases in which the state has an ownership position.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG  asked about  federal ones or  ones where                                                               
Native corporations have subsurface rights.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT said those would not [be affected by the bill].                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG  asked whether  that  is  part of  where                                                               
Agrium  gets its  feedstock now.   [No  answer was  discernible.]                                                               
Observing  that  the  figures  project  to  2009  and  that  many                                                               
assumptions are made  in the fiscal note about  where Agrium will                                                               
get its gas, he expressed concern about that.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. NUGENT said these forecasts  were made on the assumption that                                                               
the distribution  would be the  same as  it was when  [the plant]                                                               
was at capacity,  which was last summer.   He said it  is hard to                                                               
predict where gas will be found in  the future.  In response to a                                                               
question  from  Representative  Rokeberg,  he  said  there  isn't                                                               
another consumer  standing there today  to purchase the  gas that                                                               
Agrium wouldn't  be consuming if it  shut down.  He  suggested it                                                               
would be  a direct revenue  hit to the  state, to Agrium,  and to                                                               
the local economies.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG requested  elucidation about the McDowell                                                               
Group study.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Number 0862                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
JIM CALVIN,  Economist and Partner,  McDowell Group,  noting that                                                               
the  McDowell  Group  is  a research  and  consulting  firm  with                                                               
offices  in  Anchorage  and  Juneau,   told  members  Agrium  had                                                               
requested  that his  firm look  at  the economic  impacts of  its                                                               
operations on  the economies  of Alaska  and the  Kenai Peninsula                                                               
Borough.  The  analysis found that the  facility directly employs                                                               
just  under 300  people,  with  an annual  payroll  of about  $25                                                               
million;  that averages  about  $83,000 per  job,  2.5 times  the                                                               
Kenai  Peninsula and  Alaska  annual average  wage.   "These  are                                                               
tremendous  jobs that  really  are  only found  in  this kind  of                                                               
value-added manufacturing activity," he remarked.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR. CALVIN  further reported that the  Agrium operation purchases                                                               
gas  and a  variety of  goods and  services from  Kenai Peninsula                                                               
businesses,  Anchorage  businesses,  and  others;  that  spending                                                               
activity,  as well  as the  spending activity  of its  employees,                                                               
generates about 1,000 jobs in  the Kenai Peninsula area and about                                                               
$50  million in  total payroll  - about  5 percent  of the  Kenai                                                               
Peninsula employment base.  Thus  the company has a huge economic                                                               
presence in the  area, with about 250 businesses  that enjoy some                                                               
level  of spending  activity  from Agrium.    The borough  itself                                                               
receives more  than $2  million in property  tax from  the plant,                                                               
which is a big part of its property tax base.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Number 1023                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. CALVIN,  describing "output"  as the total  value of  all the                                                               
goods  and  services  produced  as  a  result  of  the  company's                                                               
operation, said output  for Agrium is about $300  million a year.                                                               
He likened  the operation  to an  economic-development director's                                                               
dream:   it creates year-round,  high-paying jobs  for residents,                                                               
since he said there is  virtually no nonresident participation in                                                               
the workforce; it  creates a high level of spending  in the local                                                               
economy  in  support  of  the  operations,  resulting  in  "great                                                               
multiplier   effects";  and   it   requires  a   high  level   of                                                               
capitalization, which  means it  generates property  tax revenues                                                               
to help local government.   Noting that the state spends millions                                                               
of  dollars  on  economic  development  kind  of  activities,  he                                                               
described  this as  "the kind  of  economic activity  ... we  all                                                               
strive for," remarkable in the  breadth and depth of its economic                                                               
impact on the borough and state as well.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR KOHRING indicated at some point he'd mentioned a billion-                                                                 
dollar effect  to the economy, and  said he stood corrected.   He                                                               
thanked Mr. Calvin for the information.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Number 1123                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG cited  a  figure in  the McDowell  Group                                                               
analysis about payroll  impacts of $383 million.   He requested a                                                               
definition of "payroll impacts."                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MR. CALVIN answered  that it is the total payroll  over the 2003-                                                               
2009 period addressed in the  various fiscal notes.  He explained                                                               
that the McDowell Group had tried to  total what is at stake.  He                                                               
added that it had been [adjusted for inflation] a little.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  ROKEBERG  referred  to   the  gross  figures  for                                                               
foregone  royalty  [to  the  state]  and  an  indication  in  the                                                               
company's  document  that  the  foregone  royalty,  in  terms  of                                                               
[Agrium's] costs,  had gone from  1 percent of the  plant's total                                                               
economic output,  or less  than 6  percent of  its $50-million-a-                                                               
year payroll.  He asked about that.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MR. CALVIN  responded that rather  than focusing  specifically on                                                               
the  impacts  to the  state's  coffers,  the McDowell  Group  had                                                               
broadened it,  looking at  what is  at stake.   He  said although                                                               
there is  $3 million a year  or so of foregone  revenue, there is                                                               
$300 million worth  of economic activity that stems  in part from                                                               
that.  He  described it as a  "give a little, get  a lot" picture                                                               
that his company is trying to present.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Number 1268                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE ROKEBERG asked Mr.  Calvin whether he believes the                                                               
legislation would  be significant in helping  the economic health                                                               
of [Agrium] so it can continue to operate.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR.  CALVIN replied  that  he wasn't  familiar  with the  margins                                                               
under which Agrium operates, but that  there is no doubt the bill                                                               
would  significantly  improve  its  likelihood  of  remaining  in                                                               
business.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Number 1308                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR KOHRING  acknowledged that  the fiscal note  is complicated                                                               
and difficult  to comprehend,  but said his  comfort about  it is                                                               
greater  than at  the previous  hearing.   He offered  his belief                                                               
that the economic benefits far outweigh the modest amount that                                                                  
the state would forego if this legislation went into effect.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Number 1370                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE FATE moved to report [CSHB 57, Version 23-                                                                       
LS0303\I, Chenoweth,  2/25/03] out  of committee  with individual                                                               
recommendations and  the accompanying fiscal notes.   There being                                                               
no objection,  CSHB 57(O&G) was  reported from the  House Special                                                               
Committee on Oil and Gas.                                                                                                       

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